Facebook's prospects may rest on trove of data

By Somini Sengupta, The New York Times | Updated: 5 June 2012 11:47 IST

Highlights

Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook's chief, has managed to amass more information about more people than anyone else in history.

Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook's chief, has managed to amass more information about more people than anyone else in history.
Now what?

As Facebook turns to Wall Street in the biggest public offering ever by an Internet company, it faces a new, unenviable test: how to keep growing and enriching its hungry new shareholders.

The answer lies in what Facebook will be able to do - and how quickly - with its crown jewel: its status as an online directory for a good chunk of the human race, with the names, photos, tastes and desires of nearly a billion people.

Facebook's shares are expected to begin trading as early as this week. Already, lots of investors are scrambling to buy those shares, with giddy hopes that it will become a big moneymaker like Google. Because of that high demand, Facebook is expected to increase its offering price from its initial range, giving the company a valuation possibly as high as $104 billion.

In the eight years since it sprang out of a Harvard dorm room, Facebook has signed up users at breakneck speed, kept them glued to the site for longer stretches of time and turned a profit by using their personal information to customize the ads they see.

Whether it can spin that data into enough gold to justify a valuation of as much as $104 billion remains unclear.

"We know Facebook has an awful lot of data, but what they have not worked out yet is the most effective means of using that data for advertising," said Catherine Tucker, a professor of marketing at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "They are going to have to experiment a lot more."

Analysts, investors and company executives can rattle off any number of challenges facing the company. As it works to better match ads to people, it has to avoid violating its users' perceived sense of privacy or inviting regulatory scrutiny. It needs to find other ways to generate revenue, like allowing people to buy more goods and services with Facebook Credits, a kind of virtual currency. Most urgently it has to make money on mobile devices, the window to Facebook for more and more people.

All the while, its ability to innovate with new features and approaches - to "break things," in the words of Mr. Zuckerberg - may be markedly constrained once it has investors to answer to.
"They are going to have to think about whether they can continue with the motto 'Done is better than perfect,' " said Susan Etlinger, an industry analyst at the Altimeter Group. "When you're operating as a public company, life is very different. We haven't seen that play out yet. It's going to take a few quarters to figure out what a public Facebook is going to look like."

Skeptics point out that the company's revenue growth showed signs of slowing in the first quarter of 2012. And a Bloomberg survey of 1,253 investors, analysts and traders found that a substantial majority were dubious about the eye-popping valuation Facebook was seeking. "It's a risky asset. No doubt about that," said Brian Wieser, of Pivotal Research Group. "Google was less risky." No matter. Mr. Wieser says he thinks that Facebook is worth $83 billion and that its revenue will grow by at least 30 percent for the next five years.

The comparisons to Google are inevitable. When that company went public in 2004, there were so many doubters that the company lowered its offering price to $85 a share. It closed at just over $100 on the first day of trading, and now sells for more than $600. Facebook is farther along than Google was in terms of revenue, having brought in nearly $4 billion last year, or $5.11 a user, compared with Google's $2 billion in 2003.

One Facebook investor, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of market regulations as the offering draws near, noted that when Google went public it already had a clear business strategy. By contrast, he described Facebook this way: "They have built an incredibly valuable asset - as opposed to a business they have executed well."

The most pressing issue for Facebook executives may be the mobile challenge. Already, over half of Facebook's 901 million users access the site through mobile devices. In regulatory filings, the company says mobile use is growing fastest in some of Facebook's largest markets, including the United States, India and Brazil. Facebook goes on to acknowledge that it makes little to no money on mobile and that "our ability to do so successfully is unproven."

There is not much space on mobile screens to show advertisements. And Google and Apple, two of Facebook's biggest rivals, control the basic software on most smartphones, which could make it harder for the company to make inroads there. Facebook's response to this challenge so far has been to aggressively acquire companies focused on mobile, including Instagram, for which it paid $1 billion in April. But it warned in a revision to its offering documents last week that the mobile shift meant it was adding users faster than it was increasing the number of ads it displayed.

What Facebook already has - more than any other digital company - is a spectacularly rich vault of information about its users, who cannot seem to stay away from the site. Americans, on average, now spend 20 percent of their online time on Facebook alone, thanks to the ever-growing menu of activities the company has introduced, from playing games to sampling music to posting pictures of baby showers and drunken escapades. Some 300 million photos are uploaded to the site daily.

How Facebook exploits its users' information - and how those users react - is the next reckoning. David Eastman, worldwide digital director for the advertising agency JWT, said Facebook would need to give marketers more data about what kinds of users click on what kinds of advertising, and about their travels on the Internet before and after they click on an ad. Most brands want to have a presence on Facebook, he said, but they do not quite understand who sees their pitches and whether they lead to greater sales.

"They need to make the data work more," Mr. Eastman said. "They need to provide deeper data. Right now the value of Facebook advertising is largely unknown."

While the bulk of Facebook's revenue comes from North America, it is banking on international growth. The company has expanded its global footprint so rapidly that four out of five Facebook users are now outside the United States. It is the dominant social network in large emerging markets like Brazil and India, though it shows no signs of penetrating China - where it would face not only government censorship but stiff competition from homegrown social networks.

Mr. Zuckerberg, who has studied Mandarin, signaled his ambitions to crack the vast Chinese market as far back as 2010. He suggested that Facebook would first try to advance deeper into markets like Russia and Japan before it took on a country as "complex" as China.
With international growth comes international regulatory headaches.

Facebook already faces audits in Europe on whether the company is living up to promises made to consumers about how it uses their data - and now, a stringent new data protection law. In India, it has been sued for spreading offensive content. And in the United States, it faces privacy audits by the Federal Trade Commission for the next 20 years. In its offering documents, Facebook repeatedly warns of legislative and regulatory scrutiny over user privacy, "which may adversely affect our reputation and brand."

Maintaining brand loyalty is excruciatingly difficult in the Internet business. Across Silicon Valley, investors are plotting the next big thing in social networks. Already, the clock may be ticking for Facebook.

"There is no consumer-facing Internet brand or site that ever keeps consumers' attention for more than 10 years," said Tim Chang, a managing director at Mayfield Fund. "It is not hard to imagine that in 10 years, people are going to be off of Facebook even."

Mr. Zuckerberg has an answer to that. In the video for investors released this month, Mr. Zuckerberg hinted at the ambitions he had for the company. Facebook, in his vision, will hook itself into the rest of the Web, making itself indispensable. Already Facebook serves as a de facto Internet passport, allowing users to log in with their Facebook identities and explore millions of other Web sites and applications.

"I think that we're going to reach this point where almost every app that you use is going to be integrated with Facebook in some way," Mr. Zuckerberg says in the video. "We make decisions at Facebook not optimizing for what is going to happen in the next year, but what's going to set us up for this world where every product experience you have is social, and that's all powered by Facebook."

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Further reading: Apple, Facebook, Google, Mark Zuckerberg

Facebook's prospects may rest on trove of data

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