iPhone 15, iPhone 16 Shipments to Decline by Up to 15 Percent in 2024 Due to Multiple Factors: Ming-Chi Kuo

More customers are choosing to upgrade to foldable phones, while generative AI (GenAI) features are also becoming popular on flagship phones.

Written by David Delima, Edited by Siddharth Suvarna | Updated: 31 January 2024 12:45 IST

iPhone 15, iPhone 16 Shipments to Decline by Up to 15 Percent in 2024 Due to Multiple Factors: Ming-Chi Kuo

Apple is tipped to equip both iPhone 16 models with a tetraprism telephoto camera

Highlights

iPhone 15 shipments could decline by 10 percent in 1H24
The claims were made by TF Securities International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo
Apple faces competition from a resurging Huawei in China

iPhone 15 series and iPhone 16 series shipments could decline significantly as the company faces various structural challenges, according to TF Securities International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. The iPhone maker is contending with the rise of two new paradigms related to flagship smartphone design, while demand for its smartphones continues to decline in China, the analyst claims. Apple is expected to unveil its purported iPhone 16 lineup as the successors to its iPhone 15 series of smartphones in the second half of 2024.

Kuo states in a Medium post that his latest supply chain survey indicates the Cupertino firm has cut its shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to nearly 200 million units — a 15 percent drop compared to last year. The analyst claims that shipments of Apple's iPhone 15 series will drop by 10 percent year on year (YoY) in H1 2024 while the iPhone 16 series will fall by up to 15 percent YoY in H2 2024.

According to Kuo, the reason behind Apple's drop in shipments for the iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 is the various structural changes, including the growing popularity of foldable phones and the integration of generative AI (GenAI) features on high-end phones. The company is also said to be facing a decline in demand in China.

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While China continues to crack down on the iPhone in China, Apple's rival Huawei is making a comeback in the country. Meanwhile, Kuo says that foldable phones are becoming more popular among users who purchase flagship phones. Weekly shipments of the iPhone in China have dropped by 30 to 40 percent YoY in recent weeks, according to Kuo.

It is worth noting that the latest data from Canalys shows that Huawei returned to the top 4 brands in China in Q4 2023, but Apple shipments in the country rose 6 percent YoY as the company shipped 17.5 million units. Apple also had the highest market share in China in Q4 2023, according to data shared by Canalys. Meanwhile, an IDC report revealed that iPhone shipments in China dropped 2 percent in Q4 2023.

Apple has lowered its shipment forecast for the iPhone 15 in H1 2024, while Samsung has raised its shipment forecast by 5 percent to 10 percent due to the GenAI functions of the handset, according to the analyst. Samsung introduced new 'Galaxy AI' features on the Galaxy S24 series, while Apple is expected to bring some AI features with its iOS 18 update that is expected to arrive later this year.

Is the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 5 the best foldable phone you can buy in India right now? We discuss the company's new clamshell-style foldable handset on the latest episode of Orbital, the Gadgets 360 podcast. Orbital is available on Spotify, Gaana, JioSaavn, Google Podcasts, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music and wherever you get your podcasts.

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iPhone 15

REVIEW
KEY SPECS
NEWS

Design
Display
Software
Performance
Battery Life
Camera
Value for Money

Good
Big upgrades over the 14
Excellent ergonomics, build quality
Very good all-round performance
Apple ecosystem benefits

Bad
Relatively slow charging
Expensive
Still a 60Hz display

Read detailed Apple iPhone 15 review

Display 6.10-inch

Processor Apple A16 Bionic

Front Camera 12-megapixel

Rear Camera 48-megapixel + 12-megapixel

RAM 6GB

Storage 128GB, 256GB, 512GB

OS iOS 17

Resolution 1179x2556 pixels

More Apple mobiles Apple mobiles price in India

Samsung Galaxy S24

REVIEW
KEY SPECS
NEWS

Design
Display
Software
Performance
Battery Life
Camera
Value for Money

Good
Compact design
Vibrant 120Hz display
Capable processor
Good overall camera performance

Bad
Average battery life
Recycled design
AI features free till 2025

Read detailed Samsung Galaxy S24 review

Display 6.20-inch

Processor octa-core

Front Camera 12-megapixel

Rear Camera 50-megapixel + 12-megapixel + 10-megapixel

RAM 8GB

Storage 128GB, 256GB, 512GB

Battery Capacity 4000mAh

OS Android 14

More Samsung mobiles Samsung mobiles price in India

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Further reading: iPhone 15, iPhone 16, Generative AI, GenAI, Apple

David Delima

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As a writer on technology with Gadgets 360, David Delima is interested in open-source technology, cybersecurity, consumer privacy, and loves to read and write about how the Internet works. David can be contacted via email at DavidD@ndtv.com, on Twitter at @DxDavey, and Mastodon at mstdn.social/@delima. More